If James Toney beats Randy Couture tonight it will be a real mess for Couture, and the only explanation is that Couture screwed up somehow.
The odds are +450 on Toney, -700 on Couture. What does that mean? It means that if you bet $100 on Toney to win and he does, you go home with $550. If you bet $700 on Couture to win, you go home with $800.
They are kind of making Toney a 4 1/2 to 1 underdog if you want to bet on him, and they are making Couture a 7-1 favorite if you want to bet on him. I don't like the way they express that because it's confusing, that there are two different odds, but the house has to take its cut.
So they are saying that Toney has a 1/5.5 chance of winning. That is 18%. They are saying that Couture has a 7/8 chance of winning, which is 88%. They add up to 106%, meaning the house is taking a 6% cut.
If you cut out the house odds you get Couture with an 83% expectation of winning. So their probability is 83-17. It's almost 5-1. That's the real odds here if you cut out all the confusing stuff. Couture is a 5-1 favorite.
I'd make Couture a 15-1 favorite to win. The way he loses is if he screws up bad.
How the hell does James Toney walk into someone else's sport and win? Does he play tennis and beat a top 10 guy? Does he beat Tiger Woods at golf? Does he outplay Eli Manning at quarterback? Does he outplay Alex Rodriguez at baseball? The matchup is silly to me. Toney's first MMA fight and he's in against a top 10 guy?
Let's face the truth here. Toney isn't even a top 10 guy in boxing. He's years over the hill. His so-called boxing world championship is bullshit. He's not the IBF or WBC or WBA champion. He's the XYZ champion. Why not exhume Rocky Marciano and put his dead body in the MMA cage with Couture?
How the hell does a guy who isn't even a top 10 guy in boxing get in an MMA cage against a top 10 guy at the other guy's sport? It's dumb. Toney doesn't belong in this fight. If he wins, it's a fluke.
Toney should be making his MMA debut against Seth Petruzelli. Against the runner up in the TUF competition, Brandon whatever his name is. Brendan Schaub. No wait, maybe not. Schaub would kick his ass.
Toney belongs in an MMA fight with Christine Cyborg Santos. Okay, that's going a little too far, she's too small for him. I'm getting carried away here.
I'd make Toney a 3-2 favorite to beat Christine Santos.
If Toney beats Couture, that means Couture screwed up really bad. I don't think it means that boxing beats the hell out of MMA. But if Toney beats Couture, and then Wladimir Klitschko beats Brock Lesnar in a mixed martial arts fight, then that means boxing beats the hell out of MMA.
A Couture loss in this fight would be a humiliation for MMA. I think Couture should be at least a 15-1 favorite to TKO Toney, not to decision him, to TKO him. If he doesn't, that's a humiliation for MMA. How does a has-been in another sport beat a top guy at his own game?
Part of me hopes that Toney wins. The reason is that it would bring other, hopefully better, boxers into MMA, and that adds interest. James Toney is nothing, in MMA or in boxing, and he doesn't belong in the ring with Randy Couture.
I think maybe Sam Peter would be a better representative than Toney, if you can't get a Klitschko. Or David Haye. But old James Toney? Come on. Why not get George Foreman if you're going to get Toney. How about Joe Frazier?
Granted, Toney is a few years younger than Couture, but Couture at 87 is still near his peak, a freak of nature. Toney, at 82, should be using a walker.